The impact of COVID-19 on the electric vehicle market is more like a yellow light than a red light, according to a new whitepaper from Cox Automotive Mobility.
Or as the analysis puts it, the hit to EVs will be, “more of a stallout than a vanishing act.”
The company released a whitepaper Monday titled “COVID-19 Recovery: Speed Bump or Accelerate for the EV Market?” written by Cox Automotive head of research and development Lea Malloy.
“While we may experience a short-term dip in EV growth due to COVID-19, many factors set a course for a positive long-term trajectory,” Malloy said in a news release accompanying the whitepaper.
“Ultimately, cross-industry collaboration will facilitate EV advancement and consumer adoption,” she said. “At Cox Automotive, our goal is to enable this new market in support of a closed-loop service ecosystem together.”
The company explores three key themes in the paper, among other areas.
One of those is the “real and perceived costs” — including maintenance, battery life and incentive availability — and how those are hurdles to overcome.
The paper also explores infrastructure.
“Access to EV charging nationwide will continue to play a critical role in consumer purchase and adoption, as well as the transition to an all-electric fleet future,” the company said in a news release.
Additionally, the whitepaper looks at how to avoid “unintended consequences.” Cox Automotive says there needs to be a fast response from the industry “to advance capabilities to extend battery first life and provide appropriate end-of-life options to protect our communities and the environment.”
Looking at the introduction of the report, Malloy says the slowdown in the EV market is driven more by “longer production lead times” than it does about automaker goals.
In fact, the whitepaper shares several 2020 EV launches by Volkswagen, Volvo, Audi and Ford, though not all are confirmed for the U.S.
Going back to the point of 2020 being a “stall out” instead of “vanishing act,” Malloy ways in the paper, “In fact, recent signs suggest that any stall out may have more to do with long production lead times and less about dimming ambition by OEMs. How long the stall out will last is a point of much conversation.
“Fact of the matter is, the push to electric is inescapable as carmakers scramble to meet strict emissions targets in Europe, China and nationally, including California and an ever-growing list of states that have adopted or are poised to adopt California’s zero-emissions mandate,” she said.
“Moreover, many manufacturers have spent billions of dollars in research on EV technology, which has been underway for years, with many billions more committed in the years to come,” Malloy said. “Some OEMs have literally bet their whole future on these vast investments, making it unrealistic to reel in.”
Stay tuned for more from Malloy on the EV market in an upcoming episode of the Auto Remarketing Podcast. The paper can be downloaded at www.coxautoinc.com.